Financial Analysis of Mattel Inc.
Mattel Inc. is currently trading at $20.13 per share with the following key metrics:
Financial Strength
- Market Cap: $6.65B
- P/E Ratio: 12.74
- EPS (TTM): $1.58
- Free Cash Flow (TTM): $604.8M
- Total Cash: $1.39B
- Total Debt: $2.69B
- Debt-to-Equity: 118.69%
- Current Ratio: 2.38
Profitability
- Profit Margin: 10.07%
- Operating Margin: 9.44%
- Return on Equity: 24.55%
- Return on Assets: 7.07%
Growth
- Quarterly Revenue Growth (YoY): 1.60%
- Quarterly Earnings Growth (YoY): -4.40%
The company appears financially stable with strong cash flow generation and adequate liquidity. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderately high at 118.69%, but the current ratio of 2.38 indicates good short-term liquidity. Mattel's ROE of 24.55% shows effective use of shareholder equity.
Intrinsic Value Calculations
P/E Valuation
Inputs:
EPS: $1.58
Median historical P/E: 12.74
Expected growth rate: 5.00% (estimated based on analyst forecasts)
Margin of Safety: 25.00%
Conservative growth rate: 3.00% (lower estimate due to recent earnings decline)
Discount rate: 9.00%
Calculations:
Year 1: $1.63 ($1.58 × 1.03)
Year 2: $1.68 ($1.63 × 1.03)
Year 3: $1.73 ($1.68 × 1.03)
Year 4: $1.78 ($1.73 × 1.03)
Year 5: $1.83 ($1.78 × 1.03)
Value in 5 years: $23.36 ($1.83 × 12.74)
Present value: $15.18 ($23.36 ÷ (1.09)^5 × 0.75)
DCF Valuation
Inputs:
Cash & Cash Equivalents: $1,387,908,000
Total Liabilities: $4,279,959,000
Free cash flow: $597,946,000
Shares outstanding: 330,200,000
Expected growth rate: 5.00% (estimated)
Margin of Safety: 25.00%
Conservative growth rate: 3.00%
Growth decline rate: 5.00%
Discount rate: 9.00%
Year 10 FCF multiplier: 12
Calculations:
Year 1: $615,884,380 ($597,946,000 × 1.03)
Year 2: $634,360,911 ($615,884,380 × 1.03)
Year 3: $653,391,739 ($634,360,911 × 1.03)
Year 4: $672,993,491 ($653,391,739 × 1.03)
Year 5: $693,183,296 ($672,993,491 × 1.03)
Year 6: $713,978,794 ($693,183,296 × 1.03)
Year 7: $735,398,158 ($713,978,794 × 1.03)
Year 8: $757,460,103 ($735,398,158 × 1.03)
Year 9: $780,183,906 ($757,460,103 × 1.03)
Year 10: $803,589,423 ($780,183,906 × 1.03)
Total NPV FCF: $4,848,638,932
Year 10 FCF value: $3,334,602,172 ($803,589,423 × 12 ÷ (1.09)^10)
Cash & Equivalents: $1,387,908,000
Total Liabilities: $4,279,959,000
Company value: $5,291,190,104 (($4,848,638,932 + $3,334,602,172 + $1,387,908,000 - $4,279,959,000) × 0.75)
Intrinsic value per share: $16.02 ($5,291,190,104 ÷ 330,200,000)
Conclusion
Based on these calculations, Mattel's shares appear to be trading above their intrinsic value range of $15.18-$16.02. The current price of $20.13 represents a premium of approximately 25-33% above the calculated intrinsic value. This suggests that the stock may be somewhat overvalued at current prices.
However, investors should note that Mattel has analyst price targets averaging $25.58, indicating potential upside according to market analysts. The company's stable cash flow generation and reasonable P/E ratio might justify part of this premium.